October 2025 Update: San Mateo County Real Estate: A Market Finding Its Balance

As we wrap up September, the San Mateo County housing market is showing signs of cautious momentum. With more listings hitting the market, buyers gaining options, and prices continuing their steady climb.

Key Market Highlights (Source: Aculist, September 2025)

• Closed Sales: Up from 312 to 364 — a healthy increase in completed transactions.

• Median Sales Price: Rose from $1,900,000 to $2,000,000, reflecting strong demand for desirable homes across the Peninsula.

• Median Days on Market: Slightly faster, dropping from 14 to 13 days, meaning well-priced homes are still moving quickly.

• New Listings: Jumped from 350 to 493, giving buyers more choices after a tight summer inventory.

• Months of Inventory: Increased by 14%, now at 1.6 months — still a seller’s market, but edging toward a more balanced pace.

What we’re seeing is a transitional market: sellers are still enjoying strong prices, but buyers finally have a little breathing room as inventory rises and the pace of sales slows slightly.

Economic Shifts Are Supporting Mortgage Rates

The broader economy is also influencing the local housing dynamics. According to my lending partner’s latest market insights, consumer confidence dipped in September — the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell to 94.2 from 97.4 in August. That drop signals that households are feeling a bit more cautious about spending and finances.

While that might sound like bad news on the surface, it often leads to good news for mortgage rates. Lower consumer confidence and weaker job data tend to ease inflation pressure, which helps bond markets and, in turn, stabilizes or lowers mortgage rates.

In fact, the ADP Employment Report for September showed private employment unexpectedly fell by 32,000 jobs — a stark contrast to the 40,000 job gain economists expected. Combined with a government shutdown delaying official labor reports, this data reinforces the narrative of a cooling economy — again, a trend that typically supports more favorable borrowing conditions.

After a sharp uptick earlier this year, mortgage rates have begun inching back down, giving some buyers renewed motivation to re-enter the market this fall.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers:
The jump in new listings means you have more choices than earlier in the summer — and potentially less competition. With mortgage rates easing slightly and sellers becoming more realistic on pricing, this fall could be a strategic window to secure a home before the end of the year.

For Sellers:
Homes are still selling near record prices, especially those that are well-prepared and priced strategically. However, with inventory rising, presentation and pricing matter more than ever. Expect motivated but selective buyers.

Bottom Line

September’s data shows a market balancing between strength and opportunity — a rare sweet spot where both buyers and sellers can benefit. Prices remain high, but increased inventory and softening economic data are starting to create a window of opportunity for well-prepared buyers.

If you’ve been thinking about making a move — whether buying, selling, or just exploring your options — let’s talk about how these shifting trends might affect your specific goals here in Redwood City, Menlo Park, or anywhere across the Peninsula.